A Statistical Look at the Bulls with Rip Hamilton in the Lineup

Rip Hamilton is injured again.

I'll pause for a few seconds to let everyone finish gasping and questioning their god.

Okay, good. Shocking right? Not really. I WAS BEING SARCASTIC. Anyways, I thought I would take a look at the statistical impact Rip has had on the Bulls when he's played with the full starting lineup. Join me on this magical journey.

For this, I will be using the awesome Play Index+ and, more specifically, the Lineup Finder.

Now before I look up these numbers let me just say that with the "eye test", Rip seems to provide a whole different dimension to the offense. He draws attention from multiple defenders coming off screens and takes much needed pressure to score off of Rose. If Rip was healthy, I think the Bulls would have a decent shot to take down the Heat. On to the numb3rz!

The two lineups the Bulls have used the most this season and the lineups that I will be comparing:

• Rose, Brewer, Deng, Boozer, Noah
• 235 minutes played in 18 games
• 13.05 minutes per game

• Rose, Hamilton, Deng, Boozer, Noah
• 164.9 minutes played in 9 games
• 18.32 minutes per game

These lineups will be compared per 100 possessions.

Keep in mind that:

• Games featuring the Rip lineup, the Bulls played teams with a winning percentage of 45.83% and are 8-1 in those games.
• Games featuring the Brewer lineup, the Bulls played teams with a winning percentage of 47.30% and are 17-1 in those games.
• Neither of these lineups were used in the game against Miami.
• 9 games featuring Rip with the full starting lineup is not a huge sample size.

Now let's get our hands dirty.

		Poss			Net (Per 100 Possessions)
G	MP	Tm	Opp	Pace	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	PTS
18	235.0	436	427	88.1	+7.7	-2.8	+.098	+1.8	+0.9	+.108	+.109	+5.5	+6.4	+.064	+22.7
9	164.9	310	309	90.1	+6.6	+5.5	+.042	-0.3	0.0	-.026	+.039	-2.0	-3.3	+.036	+10.9

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

The Bulls play at a slightly faster pace with Rip in the lineup, but looking at the net stats per 100 possessions, everything else is worse. A difference of 11.8 points per 100 possessions is pretty steep.

The Bulls attempt more shots than their opponents, but also attempt less free throws. This is likely due to shot locations. Rip has attempted 151 jump shots and 26 shots at the rim (5.81:1 ratio). Brewer has attempted 173 jump shots and 94 at the rim (1.84:1 ratio).

		Poss			Team (Per 100 Possessions)
G	MP ▾	Tm	Opp	Pace	ORB	ORB%	DRB	DRB%	TRB	TRB%
18	235.0	436	427	88.1	11.2	27.8	39.6	80.1	50.5	56.3
9	164.9	310	309	90.1	18.1	39.7	34.6	72.8	52.7	56.6

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Total rebound percentage is almost identical but they are achieved in different ways. The Bulls grab 11.9% more of the available offensive rebounds with Rip in the lineup, but 9.3% more of the available defensive rebounds with Brewer.

The ORB% is most likely due to Rip spreading the floor more (his USG% is almost 8% higher than Brewer's) with his offensive abilities, freeing up space for Noah/Boozer/Deng to crash the boards.

		Poss			Team (Per 100 Possessions)
G	MP ▾	Tm	Opp	Pace	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF
18	235.0	436	427	88.1	27.8	7.7	7.0	14.7	13.9
9	164.9	310	309	90.1	28.7	5.8	3.2	14.8	19.4

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

The Bulls seem to be a much better passing team with Hamilton in the lineup (at least to me), but only average 0.9 more assists per 100 with him in the lineup. Compare that to averaging 1.9 more steals and 3.8 more blocks while committing 5.5 less fouls per 100 with Brewer.

		Poss			Team (Per 100 Possessions)
G	MP ▾	Tm	Opp	Pace	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	PTS
18	235.0	436	427	88.1	46.3	90.1	.514	5.7	13.8	.417	.546	15.1	20.9	.725	113.5
9	164.9	310	309	90.1	48.7	99.0	.492	3.5	12.6	.282	.510	15.5	18.4	.842	116.5

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Hypothetically, team offensive production is where you should see the biggest boost with Rip, but this isn't the case.


Our eFG% is 3.6% higher with the Brewer lineup (due to better 3PM and 3P% with comparable FG%), but the Bulls score 3 more points per 100 with Rip.

		Poss			Opponent (Per 100 Possessions)
G	MP ▾	Tm	Opp	Pace	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	PTS
18	235.0	436	427	88.1	38.6	93.0	.416	4.0	12.9	.309	.437	9.6	14.5	.661	90.9
9	164.9	310	309	90.1	42.1	93.5	.450	3.9	12.6	.308	.471	17.5	21.7	.806	105.5

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

This is where we see the biggest difference.

• Opponents score 14.6 less points per 100 with Brewer.
• Opponents eFG% is 3.4% lower with Brewer.
• Opponents FT% is 14.5% lower with Brewer.
• No idea why this is. Is Brewer just super intimidating out there?
• Teams attempt 7.2 less FTs per 100 with Brewer.

To sum all this up, statistically, the difference between the Rip/Brewer lineups doesn't exactly favor Rip. The offense is slightly better, but the lineup with Brewer absolutely locks people down defensively.

Between Rip, Deng, and Rose's injuries this year, the full starting lineup has only appeared in 9 games together. This may just be a case of everyone getting used to playing with Rip and vice versa or not being able to get into a good rhythm, but whatever it is, I'm not convinced Rip provides what the Bulls need for an NBA championship.

Let's conclude this post with a look at the "Four Factors of Basketball Success" and how it relates to Rip in the lineup.

1. Shooting (40%) - eFG%
• Brewer Lineup
• 54.6%
• Hamilton Lineup
• 51.6%
2. Turnovers (25%) - TOV%
• Brewer Lineup: 14.7%
• Hamilton Lineup: 14.8%
3. Rebounding (20%) - ORB% and DRB%
• Brewer Lineup
• ORB%: 27.8%
• DRB%: 80.1 %
• Hamilton Lineup
• ORB%: 39.7%
• DRB%: 72.8%
4. Free Throws (15%)
• Brewer Lineup
• FT/FGA: 66/393 - 1:5.95 ratio
• Opp FT/FGA: 41/397 - 1:9.68 ratio
• Hamilton Lineup
• FT/FGA: 48/307 - 1:6.40 ratio
• Opp FT/FGA: 54/289 - 1:5.35 ratio

So what do you guys think? Agree/disagree? Am I an idiot? Are you an idiot? Are you #TeamRip or #TeamBrewer? Am I copying hipsterrunoff by asking a bunch of questions at the end of my post? Are advanced stats totally lame? Do you prefer the "eye test"? Can the Bulls beat the Heat this year?